The Fred Report - Monthly November 2015SPY gave short-term rally indications, and this has occurred. There is enough technical evidence to suggest further upside after consolidation, and we would add the last third of cash raised on a breakout in SPY. While our target of 223 on SPY (per our yearly forecast) remains in play, there is less time to reach it than we figured when we made the forecast.The Fred Report - Monthly October 2015SPY given short-term rally indications, but internals suggest a retest is possible after oversold conditions are relieved. There is enough technical evidence to suggest further downside that clients who are more concerned with downside risk than capturing all upside should remain cautious at this juncture. While our target of 223 on SPY (per our yearly forecast) remains in play, we must see the quality of a short-term rally, should it occur, and also see improvement in the internal indicators.The Fred Report - Monthly September 2015SPY has corrected as forecast by weak market internals over several months. The real question is whether this decline was IT, or whether a retest and further downside should occur. There is enough technical evidence to suggest further downside that clients who are more concerned with downside risk than capturing all upside should remain cautious at this juncture. While our target of 223 (per our yearly forecast) remains in play, we may have revisions after the next quarterly indicator readings. The Fred Report - Monthly August 2015SPY had the forecast down quarter in Q2, and is oversold enough to rally this quarter. MDY and IJR also declined and weekly stochastics are now in buy mode suggesting an imminent rally. Most indexes had negative second quarters, fulfilling our forecast. This was not enough to reset the indicators, but it may be enough to spark a short-term rally, and our target of 223 (per our yearly forecast) remains in play. The Fred Report - Monthly July 2015SPY had the forecast down quarter, and is oversold enough to rally. MDY also declined and looks quite strong relative to other indexes. The Dow Industrials had two negative quarters, which fulfills our forecast of a negative quarter in the first half. This was not enough to reset the indicators, but it may be enough to spark a short-term rally, and our target of 223 (per our yearly forecast) remains in play. The Fred Report - Monthly June 2015SPY is slowly advancing but the underpinnings are weakening. MDY also made new highs and looks quite strong relative to the small cap indexes. The Dow Industrials had a negative quarter, which fulfills our forecast of a negative quarter in the first half and SPY was only marginally positive on the quarter. This was not enough to reset the indicators, however. We have higher targets for 2015 especially if stocks can correct over the summer. We continue to expect the market to get intermediate oversold before these higher targets are in play.The Fred Report - Monthly May 2015SPY is now a trading range. The Dow Industrials had a negative quarter, which fulfills our forecast of a negative quarter in the first half but SPY was only marginally positive on the quarter and had a negative month. We have higher targets for 2015 especially if stocks can correct in the first half of the year. We continue to expect the market to get intermediate oversold before these higher targets are in play.The Fred Report - Monthly April 2015SPY is now a trading range. The Dow Industrials had a negative quarter, which fulfills our forecast of a negative quarter in the first half but SPY was only marginally positive on the quarter and had a negative month. We have higher targets for 2015 especially if stocks can correct in the first half of the year. We continue to expect the market to get intermediate oversold before these higher targets are in play.The Fred Report - Monthly March 2015SPY is having the short-term rally forecast in last month’s Monthly Review. While indicators suggest this short-term rally is not over, it does not look like a kick-off move to the upside is imminent. We have higher targets for 2015 especially if stocks can correct in the first half of the year. We expect at least one down quarter and believe it should be Q2 but a decent finish to 2015 is certainly possible, especially if we can get intermediate oversold.The Fred Report - Monthly February 2015SPY was down in December and January. While indicators suggest a short-term rally this does not look like a kick-off move to the upside. We have higher targets for 2015 especially if stocks can correct in the first half of the year. We expect at least one down quarter and believe it should be Q2 but a decent finish to 2015 is certainly possible, especially if we can get intermediate oversold.The Fred Report - Monthly January 2015SPY had an interesting December, and indicators suggest upside but more volatility going forward. We got the upside test of the 209 level on SPY and have higher targets for 2015 especially if stocks can correct in the first half of the year. The first part of January might be down as indicators are overbought, but a decent finish to 2015 is certainly possible.The Fred Report - Monthly December 2014SPY had a strong November, and indicators suggest upside but more volatility going forward. We still expect an upside test of the 209 level on SPY as long as support at the 190 area on SPY holds. The first part of December might be down as indicators are somewhat overbought, but a decent finish to 2014 is certainly possible. The Fred Report - Monthly November 2014SPY had a very volatile October, and there are reasons to expect more volatility going forward. We still expect an upside test the 203 level on SPY, and possibly 209 as long as support at the 190 area on SPY holds. For now, in spite of last month’s trading, the overall market view remains where it was – neutral, but slightly more attractive than last month – we would be a bit less defensive unless downside benchmarks are violated again.The Fred Report - Monthly October 2014SPY made a short-term “Alibaba top” as forecast. We still expect a test the 203 level on SPY, and possibly 209 as long as support at the 190 area on SPY holds. For now, in spite of last month’s trading, the overall market view remains where it was – neutral, but slightly more attractive than last month – we would be a bit less defensive unless benchmarks are violated. The Fred Report - Monthly September 2014SPY closed August near summer rally targets after an intervening pullback. We still expect a test the 203 level on SPY, and possibly 209. Failure to materially exceed these areas and then a break of 190 would suggest a correction of magnitude is underway. For now, in spite of last month’s trading, the overall market view remains where it was – neutral, and proximity to trading targets suggests that caution flags are out – and some call writing may be in order.The Fred Report - Monthly August 2014After some improvement, SPY hit summer rally targets and has started to sell off sharply, violating short-term benchmarks. A short-term rally should start from these levels, and this could test the 203 level on SPY. Failure to materially exceed this and then a break of 189 would suggest a correction of magnitude is underway. For now, in spite of last week’s trading, the overall market view remains where it was – neutral, but the break of short-term benchmarks suggests playing a bit of defense in this area.The Fred Report - Monthly July 2014Broad indexes like NYA have improved, and it looks as if our forecast of a weak first half and stronger second half in the economy has been correct. We still think SPY can trade at 203 and possibly 209 in 2014, and we have seen substantial correction in secondary indexes that now looks to be ending. The Fred Report - Monthly June 2014Sentiment remains too bullish, and some corrective behavior now would set the stage for a good second half to 2014. We still think SPY can trade at 203 or so in 2014, but are concerned that the latest rally is concentrated in several large cap “story stocks” and not a broad based move. This can mask weakness in the broad market. This is shown by the relative weakness in IJR and MDY.The Fred Report - Monthly May 2014Stocks look to be at a critical juncture once again. Sentiment remains too bullish, and some corrective behavior now would set the stage for a good second half to 2014. We moved to defensive in our stock portfolios and expect another pullback into the May/June timeframe. We still think SPY can trade at 203 or so in 2014.The Fred Report - Monthly April 2014Stocks look to be at a critical juncture once again. Sentiment remains too bullish, and some corrective behavior now would set the stage for a good second half to 2014. We moved to defensive in our stock portfolios and expect another pullback into the May/June timeframe. We still think SPY can trade at 203 or so in 2014.
