The Fred Report - Monthly March 2014Stocks corrected some of the overbought condition in January, and February was up as forecast. Short term indicators are neutral but support more upside. Sentiment remains too bullish. Stocks are still not well positioned to withstand a negative surprise. We remain neutral in our stock portfolios with more firepower should we see another pullback. We still think SPY can trade at 203 or so in 2014.The Fred Report - Monthly February 2014Stocks had a strong rally in 2013, and we remain long-term bullish. Short term excesses have been somewhat corrected by the recent short-term drop. Some of the internals, especially sentiment, continue to weaken. Stocks are still not well positioned to withstand a negative surprise. We still think SPY can trade at 203 or so in 2014.The Fred Report - Monthly January 2014Stocks had a strong rally in 2013, and we remain long-term bullish, while seeing short term excesses that concern us. The internals, especially sentiment, continue to weaken. A small correction now would be extremely positive, and lead to much higher highs in 2014. Stocks are not well positioned to withstand a negative surprise. We are comfortable maintaining a neutral/defensive position, looking to deploy cash on a correction. We think SPY can trade at 203 or so in 2014.The Fred Report - Monthly December 2013Prices have continued to rally, but the internals, especially sentiment, continue to weaken. Stocks are not well positioned to withstand a negative surprise. We are comfortable maintaining a neutral/defensive position, looking to deploy cash on a correction.The Fred Report - Monthly November 2013Stocks have had a strong rally in the first half of 2013, and have hit price projections made last November. The summer rally was the worst performance in a positive year since 1928. Sentiment continues negative. In other words, the market is not well positioned to withstand a surprise. We are comfortable maintaining a neutral/defensive position.The Fred Report - Monthly October 2013Stocks have had a strong rally in the first half of 2013, and have hit price projections made last November. The summer rally was the worst performance in a positive year since 1928. Sentiment continues negative. In other words, the market is not well positioned to withstand a surprise.The Fred Report - Monthly September 2013Stocks have had a strong rally in the first half of 2013, and have hit price projections made last November. If we have made a mistake so far this year, it is that we were not aggressive enough on this summer rally, which we normally play. Last month, we suggested that much of the summer rally would be retraced, and all but .14% of it was, with that gain being the worst positive year since 1928.The Fred Report - Monthly August 2013Stocks have had a strong rally in the first half of 2013, and have hit price projections made last November. If we have made a mistake so far this year, it is that we were not aggressive enough on this summer rally, which we normally play. However, indicators suggest that much, if not all, of this latest rally from June will be retraced, although our summer rally target of 176 on SPY remains possible in August. Caution is indicated, and a sharp down month in August or September seems highly probable.The Fred Report - Monthly July 2013Stocks have had a strong rally in the first half of 2013, and have hit price projections made last November. So far, this drop has been sharper than previous short-term corrections in 2013. Economically sensitive sectors have started to lag. Commodities are weakening, perhaps because our forecast of a slowing worldwide economy is occurring. Bonds have weakened in accordance with long-term forecasts but were much weaker than expected short-term. Bonds are oversold enough to bounce, this may not occur. Caution is indicated.The Fred Report - Monthly June 2013Stocks have had a strong rally, and have hit price projections made last November. Sentiment indicators have weakened suggesting the next drop could be sharper than previous short-term corrections. Transports and economically sensitive sectors have started to lag. Commodities are entering seasonally favorable periods and could advance. Bonds have weakened in accordance with long-term forecasts but are oversold and there could be a short-term rally. We will stick with our forecast for a weaker second half to 2013 for US equities, however.The Fred Report - Monthly May 2013Stocks have had a strong rally, and have hit price projections made last November. Sentiment indicators have weakened suggesting the next drop could be sharper than previous short-term corrections. Transports and economically sensitive sectors have started to lag. Commodities, XLB, and Emerging Markets are weakening. There has been strength in fixed income. This could suggest weakness in the second half of 2013. We will sick with our forecast for a weaker second half to 2013.The Fred Report - Monthly April 2013Stocks have had one sharp correction of what we believe will be two such drops before an intermediate top could be signaled. In this environment, sharp drops are bullish – but sentiment indicators are weakening suggesting the next drop could be sharper than previous short-term corrections. Transports, and economically sensitive sectors (except XLB!) continue to perform well, but we are seeing some weakness in Emerging markets, and strength in fixed income, that could suggest weakness in the second half of 2013.The Fred Report - Monthly March 2013Stocks had the first sharp correction of what we believe will be two such drops before an intermediate top could be signaled. In this environment, sharp drops are bullish – our biggest concern would be if this rally stalls out in this range.The Fred Report - Monthly February 2013Stocks corrected this fall, moving close to our downside objectives, and the current rally is strong with key economically sensitive indexes leading the way. The first quarter of 2013 could be strong, and possibly the second half should be weaker, not stronger, than the first half of 2013. It looks like we have a momentum buy signal that could continue, with more choppiness possible.The Fred Report - Monthly January 2013Stocks corrected this fall, moving close to our downside objectives, and has kicked off 2013 with a rally. The improvement we are seeing in some of the economically sensitive sectors also supports some short-term upside action. The first quarter of 2013 could be strong, and possibly the second half should be weaker, not stronger, than the first half of 2013. It looks like we have a momentum buy signal.The Fred Report - Monthly December 2012
Stocks have corrected this fall, moving close to our downside objectives, but the market indicators have not improved enough to suggest the correction is over. A “bobbing cork” kind of market may result, with a final low in the 130 area on SPY in mid-2013. As part of this we could see a bit more sector rotation than we have seen over the last few years – so stay nimble!
The Fred Report - Monthly November 2012
Stocks had the forecast summer rally, which was been weaker than average. September rallied as well, and SPY has tested 148 to 150-area resistance. Intermediate indicators remain weak, and most technical indicators suggest waning or negative momentum. The “QE3 Up Move” has been almost completely retraced, and the market continues to show waning momentum, a concern – but this could change.
The Fred Report - Monthly October 2012
Stocks had the forecast summer rally, which was been weaker than average. September rallied as well, and SPY has tested 148 to 150-area resistance. Intermediate indicators remain weak, and most technical indicators suggest waning or negative momentum. New highs in small and mid-cap issues suggest the trend remains up, and improves the overall technical picture, but a sharp drop should occur in the next few months.
The Fred Report - Monthly September 2012
Stocks had the forecast summer rally, which was been weaker than average. Our objective of 143 was tested, but not exceeded on a closing basis. Intermediate indicators remain weak, and most technical indicators suggest waning or negative momentum. The correction from the next short and intermediate overbought reading could be the worst since 2011.
The Fred Report - Monthly August 2012Stocks are in the midst of the forecast summer rally, which has been weaker than expected. We remain with objectives of 143, which could be exceeded. Intermediate indicators remain weak, and we will evaluate the markets at the end of August, which is when the traditional summer rally ends. The correction from the next intermediate overbought reading could be the worst since 2011.
