Stocks as measured by the S&P 500 are trading up into the end of January, and while there is some broadening of the market, it has been less than we would have liked. Is this the ultimate bottom for China? We are not sure, and we do not like the Chinese fundamentals, but these ETFs have become a fairly low risk opportunity.
TYX has resumed the yield rally attempt, but the 44 area is resistance and it has failed in that area once in the last week. It looks like this resistance should hold this.
Is the market continuing to broaden out? If you looked at last week, you’d have to say no – but remember this is going to happen in fits and starts, not day in and day out. One thing that was a bit of a surprise in last week’s trading was the strength in TNX – it actually traded stronger than TYX, although we did not have a signal on it.
Stocks have closed in an interesting fashion, as we have some “big move” signals. One of the concerns that we have for this year is that rates do not fall as quickly as the market believes they will.
Stocks are acting about as expected – choppy, up and down, which is one way to resolve the overbought condition. We have an interesting situation with XLV, a sector that I think has a lot of potential.
January could be a bit dicey – as the November/December rally has discounted strong fundamental developments. It is interesting that the stock market is suggesting that inflation is dead, when some of the technical indicators are suggesting resurgence in commodity prices in 2024.
We continue to see evidence that the market is broadening out – RSP had a great week relative to SPY, and Small and Mid-Cap names also performed well. We expect TLT to have some choppy pullback this week, but the data suggests a major pullback is unlikely – hold fixed income positions.
We have discussed our belief that the equity markets would start to broaden out, moving away from the emphasis on Tech, broadening into other sectors and areas of the market. IJR is an intermediate-term base with 90-area support and 100-area resistance, which is why we are using 100 as the neckline of the Head and Shoulders pattern. As long as GLD can hold 185 on a pullback the short-term trend remains up.
Stocks are correcting sideways, which also can resolve the overbought condition on some of the indicators. One of our more controversial ideas for a trade into yearend, is to buy banks – regional banks in particular.
Stocks are short-term overbought as we come into this week, but intermediate indicators still suggest upside, especially after a short-term correction. One of our concerns is the condition of the Transportation indexes.
Stocks are overbought, so we could see some pullback next week – but otherwise we still think prices should be at least slightly higher from here at yearend. TLT should consolidate in this area, but below 88.50 would be a concern.
Our internal indicators have improved last week, but not as much as we would have thought it should. We have talked about the need for the market to broaden out, and one of the areas where we need to see improved performance is small cap. MSCI Turkey Index Fund (TUR) This could see some window dressing into the end of the year, and a move above 40 would be gravy.
