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The FRED Report – Financial Research, Education & Data
Mid Week Update
Volume 17, Issue 32
April 30, 2025
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Update of Market View
Stocks have continued up this week, and some earnings reports have been favorable. We note that there is often favorable month end seasonality, where the last two days of a month, and the first five days of the new month are up more than 60% of the time. We still think a retest is likely but note this almost always within four to six weeks after the first low. This means a retest should happen by the second week in May, or not at all. As we have mentioned, a successful retest means strong stocks won’t go down so we should be buying for models now, not waiting. So far things are going about as we thought. We show charts of SPY (SPDR® S&P 500 Trust) and QQQ (Invesco® QQQ NASDAQ 100 Trust), both of which are slowly moving through resistance.
TLT (iShare®Barclays 20 Year Treasury Bond) continues to rally off the bottom in the 85-area and is now testing some resistance in the 90-area. We continue to look for 92, and then 95. While we remain concerned about higher rates, that is still more likely a problem in the second half. GLD (SPDR Gold Shares) remains above 302, our key support number. As long as that holds, that market is sideways to up.
Other Points of Interest
We will take a quick look at SPGP (Invesco S&P 500 GARP ETF), an ETF we have recommended off and on for the last two years. Resistance is the 100-area, and support is the 90-area. The daily stochastic is overbought and the weekly is a buy recycle. This should test the 100-area at least and may go through. This is growth at a reasonable price – not high PE units. It is still useful in portfolios.
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