The Fred Report - Weekly March 11, 2013We note that stocks are close to our objective of 156 on SPY set several months ago. While we see higher prices, anyone with extremely risk adverse clients should consider some defensive action in honor of our arrival in this target zone. The recent down move in TLT leaves the door open to 110 or lower. Cocoa, Sugar, and Coffee are all down over the last several months, which indicates weak demand for these commodities and supports the possibility of a weaker second half to 2013.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 6, 2013A range from 21.70 – 22.75 is likely over the next few months for UUP the short run. We have been asked whether we would buy the stock, and we probably would not buy it if we were looking to outperform in the short run.The Fred Report - Weekly March 4, 2013Last week’s sharp declines were a bit of a surprise, but served to move daily stochastics down into the buy zone on most of the stock indexes. The bond market was especially interesting – and we may have seen a significant shift in favor of treasuries.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 27, 2013
Stocks have been weaker this week than we have expected, but daily stochastics are down and these markets looked poised to rally back into at least the first part of March. Switzerland is our favorite European investment. We would add money to this right away, while staying away from Spain and Italy.
We are close to our objective of 156 on SPY, and while we continue to like the way things are trading should the market fail to accelerate we would have concerns. Gold is at a particularly interesting juncture here as it may be making a short-term bottom. FXE has weakened enough to have a small snap back rally, but the real action should occur in FXY.
Our target for this move remains 156 and we may reduce exposure at that time. Short-term indicators on GLD suggest a bounce is quite close – how far it carries, or how it fails, will tell us a lot. USO has started to decline as expected now that the seasonally strong period is over and it could test all the way back to 31 or even break the recent low.
This consolidation could end this week, with some upside acceleration that could serve as a spur to get some of the money still on the sidelines into stocks. GLD continues to have support at the 160 area, and a close above 164.50 would be a positive and suggest a move to our forecast 179 is underway. Part of our forecast that EEM will do well this year is based on analysis of Asian markets in general and China in particular.
The rest of the week could be choppy but up – no changes in opinions, and this market could close on the highs for the week. We should see some upward movement in GLD and above 165 would be strong and suggest our objective of 179 is on the way to being achieved.
An intermediate top is likely weeks and very likely months, away. Bonds are looking precarious, as TLT has broken support. Oil may weaken in the spring.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 30, 2013Areas we would use to buy SPY or other stock investments are SPY at 148.70, and 145 if we see them. TLT has closed slightly below the key 117 area, and further decline would suggest a test of the 110 area could occur and quickly. So far, gold is consolidating and not falling, and as long as we remain above 160 to 158 the next buy signal should work on a short-term basis.The Fred Report - Weekly January 28, 2013As long as small and midcap names continue to lead the market (along with Transportations and other economically sensitive indexes) the prospect for continued strength remains. A move below 158 on GLD would be a concern. One area that might be of interest in commodities is agriculture. The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 24, 2013AAPL earnings report may spark the small pullback we thought could occur this week, and we would use this as a buying opportunity. DXJ (Japan Hedged Equity Fund ETF) should probably be a part of advisor portfolios that are working in this market.The Fred Report - Weekly January 22, 2013
The stock market is overbought short-term, and could see some pullback this week – we would see this as a buying opportunity – but this also may be a “good” overbought, which generally limits pullbacks. This week is a big earnings week, and there are some signs that Tech earnings may be better than expected.
We still like the look of things, but note that daily stochastics are up enough that they could generate a short-term sell signal, which we would use to add stocks in favorite sectors. We would use this yen rally to try and add some Japanese ETFs or ADRs if you do not have any exposure. GLD has started to rally and a move above 164.30 would be a plus and confirmation of a rally toward 172 then 169.
The Fred Report - Weekly January 14, 2013This is options expiration week, and it could be a bit more volatile than we have seen of late. We reiterate again that Japan may be a real “sleeper” market this year.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 9, 2013We hoped for a test of at least 143.50 (and still could see this), but indicators are suggesting at least a try for the upside from here, and a new high above 148 which looks possible from here. The economically sensitive stocks such as small and mid-cap, plus the transports ( IYT) have suddenly started to outperform, with small and mid trading at all-time highs.The Fred Report - Weekly January 7, 2013This move taking place on higher upside momentum than buying indications, plus leadership in the economically sensitive indexes (small and mid plus the transports) suggests further strength into at least the first quarter and possibly the first half of 2013. The Fred Report - Weekly December 31, 2012
The market may not decline much on resolution – and those short waiting for this should start to cover on the current weakness. JJC has resistance from 48 – 51 and through this would be positive not only for the metal but also for the economy. We recommend EWL (Switzerland) for anyone who wants a speculative position in Europe, and it has been working well and should continue to work.
We look at stocks moving into yearend and beyond, and see some chance for upside this week, and into 2013. Our accumulation model on gold still looks good, suggesting gold should be bought at these levels, at least for speculators. We could see some volatility in the dollar.
