Our target for this move remains 156 and we may reduce exposure at that time. Short-term indicators on GLD suggest a bounce is quite close – how far it carries, or how it fails, will tell us a lot. USO has started to decline as expected now that the seasonally strong period is over and it could test all the way back to 31 or even break the recent low.
This consolidation could end this week, with some upside acceleration that could serve as a spur to get some of the money still on the sidelines into stocks. GLD continues to have support at the 160 area, and a close above 164.50 would be a positive and suggest a move to our forecast 179 is underway. Part of our forecast that EEM will do well this year is based on analysis of Asian markets in general and China in particular.
The rest of the week could be choppy but up – no changes in opinions, and this market could close on the highs for the week. We should see some upward movement in GLD and above 165 would be strong and suggest our objective of 179 is on the way to being achieved.
An intermediate top is likely weeks and very likely months, away. Bonds are looking precarious, as TLT has broken support. Oil may weaken in the spring.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 30, 2013Areas we would use to buy SPY or other stock investments are SPY at 148.70, and 145 if we see them. TLT has closed slightly below the key 117 area, and further decline would suggest a test of the 110 area could occur and quickly. So far, gold is consolidating and not falling, and as long as we remain above 160 to 158 the next buy signal should work on a short-term basis.The Fred Report - Weekly January 28, 2013As long as small and midcap names continue to lead the market (along with Transportations and other economically sensitive indexes) the prospect for continued strength remains. A move below 158 on GLD would be a concern. One area that might be of interest in commodities is agriculture. The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 24, 2013AAPL earnings report may spark the small pullback we thought could occur this week, and we would use this as a buying opportunity. DXJ (Japan Hedged Equity Fund ETF) should probably be a part of advisor portfolios that are working in this market.The Fred Report - Weekly January 22, 2013
The stock market is overbought short-term, and could see some pullback this week – we would see this as a buying opportunity – but this also may be a “good” overbought, which generally limits pullbacks. This week is a big earnings week, and there are some signs that Tech earnings may be better than expected.
We still like the look of things, but note that daily stochastics are up enough that they could generate a short-term sell signal, which we would use to add stocks in favorite sectors. We would use this yen rally to try and add some Japanese ETFs or ADRs if you do not have any exposure. GLD has started to rally and a move above 164.30 would be a plus and confirmation of a rally toward 172 then 169.
The Fred Report - Weekly January 14, 2013This is options expiration week, and it could be a bit more volatile than we have seen of late. We reiterate again that Japan may be a real “sleeper” market this year.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 9, 2013We hoped for a test of at least 143.50 (and still could see this), but indicators are suggesting at least a try for the upside from here, and a new high above 148 which looks possible from here. The economically sensitive stocks such as small and mid-cap, plus the transports ( IYT) have suddenly started to outperform, with small and mid trading at all-time highs.The Fred Report - Weekly January 7, 2013This move taking place on higher upside momentum than buying indications, plus leadership in the economically sensitive indexes (small and mid plus the transports) suggests further strength into at least the first quarter and possibly the first half of 2013. The Fred Report - Weekly December 31, 2012
The market may not decline much on resolution – and those short waiting for this should start to cover on the current weakness. JJC has resistance from 48 – 51 and through this would be positive not only for the metal but also for the economy. We recommend EWL (Switzerland) for anyone who wants a speculative position in Europe, and it has been working well and should continue to work.
We look at stocks moving into yearend and beyond, and see some chance for upside this week, and into 2013. Our accumulation model on gold still looks good, suggesting gold should be bought at these levels, at least for speculators. We could see some volatility in the dollar.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update December 19, 2012We have been, and remain, somewhat defensive in trading positions. Right now trend following systems suggest the trend is up and has not yet peaked. As long as IYT remains above 93 it suggests continued rally. We would add a bit to GLD on a down open, followed by a move above 162.55 for those who sold at 166.The Fred Report - Weekly December 17, 2012
We continue to see more short-term topping signs than not and a break below 139 would tend to imply a test of the recent lows. For now, traders should likely be on the sidelines with bonds, while investors can still look at LQD and PGX as ways to increase income for clients. Starting to nibble at DBA in advance of next year (slowly, not full positions) looks advisable. Japan is starting to come out of a base.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update December 12, 2012
The quality of the rally was not as strong as it could have been, and while the 144 area on SPY was tested, it looks to have held the market in check so far. The signals suggest stocks should be strong into the end of the week, where we would write calls and take some more defensive action.
Caution is indicated on AAPL and SPY. GLD is seeing the drop we forecast in the weekly letter, and the daily stochastic is not in the buy zone, while the weekly still has some more to go on the downside – in other words we may see some consolidation here over the next week or so. We would look to add to PSAI over the next week or so at 36 or slightly below. GDXJ has support at 20 to 20.50 and we would try to add to this at 20.10 or so.
