Equities experienced a very sharp drop in early August and rebounded but this does not really change our forecast of a choppy corrective market into late September/early October, followed by an advance before the election.
Equities have experienced a very sharp drop and are rebounding but this does not really change our forecast of a choppy corrective market into late August/early September, followed by an advance before the election.
Put/Call has moved down to the low end of the range. This indicator is rated negative as it has dropped back down this month, as the market rallied. It is showing a bit more complacency.
The dollar tested the 106-area and failed so far, but the intermediate picture is still strong. Look at a long-term chart of the dollar. The dollar is a multiyear uptrend (since 2008) and this could be resuming.
TLT is trying to make a short-term bottom: TLT failed at resistance around the 100-area and now has a pattern of lower highs and lows. The daily stochastic is overbought, and the weekly is a new buy recycle. The recent short-term rally tested 90 but failed to move above it. Another advance to 100 would improve this chart.
Put/Call Ratio is moving up, a bullish surprise. We have seen a couple of spikes in the last year that are positive, and this is positive when it should be dropping. These swings in sentiment are a positive for the market – consensus can lead to problems and a one-sided market.
The market via SPY has rallied but other indexes are lagging. This is a set up for a pullback unless IJR and MDY pick up soon. MDY is improving and hit new 52-week highs.
TLT is rallying, but the trend remains down. Accumulation models have weakened. MUB, LQD, and HYG have bottoming formations, and are stronger than TLT.
The market via SPY rallied to resistance. It rallied into yearend as forecast, and now should have a minor correction. Small Cap is improving, as is Mid Cap. Transports remain a concern. As long as SPY remains above 450 the picture is short-term positive.
USO is at the bottom of a range as positive seasonality continues: The weekly stochastic is oversold, and the daily is almost oversold. UGA is a base: The daily stochastic is coming down, and the weekly is oversold and ready to turn up.
We expect a rally into Thanksgiving, and maybe into the end of 2023. Many internal indicators continue to suggest intermediate weakness.
If we are right, then the majority of stocks have made lows here and even if there is a retest the strong names may not come down again, so we would be adding to models here.
The market via SPY has rallied to resistance. It is set to pull back once again. We expect another pullback but 420 should hold . Small Cap is weaker than expected. Transports remain a concern although they have improved.
TLT is near the bottom of the 110 to 97 range. Accumulation models have weakened. MUB, LQD, and HYG have bottoming formations. Bonds have moved into a trading range but could have a spike down as part of a bottoming process.
Oil has consolidated and seasonal weakness has ended. Watch oil via USO, UGA and DBC carefully. The oil stocks have ignored seasonality because of improved earnings. The latest OPEC+ cut news is bullish for oil and suggests a summer driving rally.
Do note that Put/Call barely budged as banks failed, enough of a negative to turn our opinion on this negative. It has fallen on Debt Ceiling concerns as well. This indicator suggests a return to complacency. We grade this negative for that reason.
The market pulled back to 380, in line with our forecast, and then rallied back to resistance. It is set to pull back once again. Small Cap is weaker than expected. Transports remain a concern.
The Put/Call indicator spiked at the end of December 2022, giving panicky readings. This was weaker than it should have been throughout 2022. However, it was flat during the banking crisis, suggesting complacency is coming back.
TLT has tested the low end of the 110 to 97 range. Accumulation models remain strong. MUB, LQD, and HYG have potential bottoming formations.
Support at 380 to 360 on SPY continues to hold – buying at 380 has not been a bad idea. We expected a rally toward 430 to 440 on SPY. This has slowed at 420 and should pause here.
