The Fred Report - Weekly March 16, 2015U.S. stocks actually closed with a short-term buy signal so we could see a rally from this area. Our perpetual contract is near the January low but has not yet exceeded it and we have been looking for January’s low to be exceeded for several months. In fact we are looking for new monthly closing lows on oil. We would add some new money to the Japanese ETFs that are not hedging the Yen, especially on dips.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 11, 2015Deploy cash? We would divide money into thirds and consider adding one-third in this area, between 205 and 204. Other points would be 198.50 and below the 198-area. If in fact the “reason” for this stock market decline is a “surging dollar” there could be a quick change in this outcome.The Fred Report - Weekly March 9, 2015Traders should be very cautious here – we have mentioned that investors should hold some cash and we would wait to deploy this. The long-term trend in bonds remains up unless the 122 – 120 TLT area is broken. Our forecast on oil is for a divergence bottom, where price makes new closing lows, and momentum makes a higher low may come into play sooner than we expected.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 4, 2015US stocks are beginning the week in choppy fashion and this is positive for March. GLD remains on a buy signal but unless through 117 on a closing basis we may see a bit more downside. Careful here.The Fred Report - Weekly March 2, 2015
Stocks had an up month in February, and some of this strength should carry over into March after the market resolves a short-term overbought condition. We continue to expect this TLT rally to retest our sell point of 134 for traders, but we will become more cautious should TLT decline to a new correction low below 125.90.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 25, 2015TLT has been weaker than expected but is finally starting to rally. We continue to expect a test of 132 – 134, and traders who did not sell on the first run up to 134 might consider sale should these levels be hit. The daily stochastic on USO is now in the buy zone, and if it turns up we should see upside behavior into the end of the week and rally into March as we have noted.The Fred Report - Weekly February 23, 2015Stocks look like an end of month rally should occur, and we would expect an up week. We will give TLT another week to rally, but the longer this takes the worse this market looks. A down close on GLD for February suggests rally possibilities for March so we will watch accordingly.The Fred Report - Weekly February 17, 2015We maintain our target range of 223 – 229 on SPY as well as the view that the upper end of this will probably not be in play until a correction occurs. We would expect at least a retest of the 134 area on TLT before further decline. We expect oil to trend up through the end of February.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 11, 2015Stocks are up on the week, and we expect this to continue through the end of the week. The daily stochastic on GLD is now oversold and we have two days that have held support. Should the daily stochastic turn up we would expect a rally. We would move stops on USO for traders to 17 or so, near breakeven.The Fred Report - Weekly February 9, 2015This is going to be an interesting week, as indicators present a mixed picture that we believe will be resolved to the upside. Failure to rally back above134 this week would be a concern on bonds, and suggest a peak is in for at least the first part of 2015. We continue to look for the 21 – 22 area on USO in this rally, although it may do better than that ultimately.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 4, 2015Stocks have rallied off of support, helped by the rally in XLE and oil.The Fred Report - Weekly February 2, 2015
Much below 198 – 197 on SPY implies more corrective action and while we believe there is more risk in Q2 we could easily see a breakdown now – bounces are getting weaker and indicators worse. January will be the lowest Monthly close for a month or two on crude oil, thus providing a short-term trading opportunity in oil stocks.
The SPY has held support at the 202 area on a closing basis. There remains intermediate support at 198 or so. We would use weakness to the 32 area to buy positions in XHB.
The Fred Report - Weekly January 26, 2015An attack on the highs next week, combined a higher January closing high relative to December 2014 would be a strong indication that any corrective behavior will in fact be shunted off until the second quarter. Advisors looking at putting money into oil and take advantage of our forecast that this month is going to be the low closing month should likely wait until the end of the week to do this.The Fred Report - Weekly January 20, 2015In spite of the weak market so far in January, we still believe that a rally from this area sparked by a rally in oil should occur, and then the market would be at strong risk for a real correction in the second quarter.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 14, 2015
We are continuing to hold the 202 area on SPY, and we have tested it repeatedly. IJR is performing a bit better than the larger cap names – something we have been looking for to reflect some positives in the economy.
The Fred Report - Weekly January 12, 2015We continue to recommend low volatility (SPLV), and discuss the possibility for a rally this week. We are looking for more volatility this year and think it will be a year for option writing – which generally means higher option premiums and a higher VIX.The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 7, 2015We were looking for a choppy beginning to 2015 but this has been more of a straight-line move. Below SPY 197 closing basis would suggest problems sooner than we anticipated.The Fred Report - Weekly January 5, 2015
Our favorite sector for the 2015 remains XLF, the financials. One part of the market that is oversold and has potential is the commodities area, and of the popular commodities gold is very interesting here.
The Fred Report - Weekly December 29, 2014We are overweight financials in our sector models and are emphasizing big banks rather than small regional bank names, which we believe are over owned. We would buy emerging market (EM) related ETFs in this area but slowly, looking for a test of 42 on EEM and then another pullback. We would treat this as an accumulation chart for longer-term investors and a good trading chart for those so inclined.
