Stocks should move down toward the bottom of the range in spite of seasonal strength into the Memorial Day weekend. We continue to hold stocks in our models but will not chase a move up.
Our internal indicators did not show the kind of improvement we would expect. MUB should hold 105, as this is the strongest of these charts due to the higher right shoulder. A break of that area would suggest higher rates, which would be a surprise. We have discussed the possibility of a seasonal bottom in oil prices at the end of May, and we are now very close to that timeframe.
We see the SPY trading to the 380-area by the end of May or so, where we would buy the market, with the trading cash we took out in the 414-area. While indicators suggest this range will resolve to the upside, it probably won’t do so at this time.
We maintain our forecast of a move down to the bottom end of our projected trading range (380 or so to 420 or so on SPY). While Anecdotal Sentiment is quite bearish, our Real Sentiment Indicators do not reflect this.
Indicators continued to weaken on Monday and Tuesday, suggesting a bit more pullback for the stock indexes. Bonds were hit a bit but still remain close to the middle of their trading range. This is probably a good time to buy Japan with a longer-term horizon.
We would expect this week to be down, but please recall, that our forecast top of the range is 420 to 440 – it is possible that we break above 420 and if SPY fails there it should move quickly to the bottom end of the range. Small cap generally outperforms coming out of a recession, so the action here suggests we may be going into recession, and not in recession now.
More of a correction would be confirmed by a move below 407, on SPY, very close to Tuesday’s low. Then a break of 400 would target 380 or so. We note the McClellan Oscillator, at -95 or so, and stochastics plus other indicators, suggests more downside potential here. Relax, as we should have a good buying opportunity over the next few weeks.
We still remain cautious on the market, and expect to continue within the trading range. We would be accumulating oil stocks on dips over the next few weeks.
So far, we have seen some tech earnings that have been better than expected, so stocks could bounce early Wednesday on this news. If the market fails to rally nicely on this news, then it would tend to confirm our view that the next pullback is underway. For GLD, failure to exceed 187 on this move would be a concern, and below 184 would suggest lower prices are coming.
There are signs of a short-term top in the market. We still do not see a move to 300 on SPY, however, and will take trading positions on any buy signal around 380 or so.
One interesting time is the “as good as it gets” phase, when the market is expecting a series of bad earnings reports, so it sells off on good news. This often, but not always, happens ahead of recessions. We would use this week to sell some trading positions and prepare for another pullback toward the 380-area on SPY.
Stocks continue their choppy rally and we have no reason to change our opinion or upside target (420 to 440 on SPY) for this rally. Recall we went back in at 381 on SPY for trading funds and will look to liquidate that portion as we get selling indications in the 420 to 440 area.
One of the concerns we have is that, like the 1970’s, we will see rotation in leadership on each rally within the trading range. Bonds still look like a range, but surprises could be to the upside in bond prices.
We still expect an upward bias into April. Keep trading large cap stocks that move with the indexes. It may be that the big gap up in TLT we saw on the banking news was the peak of the trading range.
We looked at our accumulation models and market internals over the weekend. There are some good and bad readings, but overall, there is nothing to suggest that our forecast of more trading range is unlikely to work. We will be looking at a short-term peak in April.
