The Fred Report - Weekly March 14, 2011
We remain with negative moving averages on all of the major indexes – the 5 day is below the 20 day, and that is one of our primary determinants of trend. Our concern remains that if the economy strengthens in the second half of 2011, rates will rise and then will end up here or a little higher at year end. We continue to expect at least a try at some weakness in oil as the weather warms up, before a strong summer driving rally later in this summer.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 9, 2011
While in some respects Tuesday was a good day, overall the market is actually weaker than it looked. The overall structure of the US equity market remains intact, at least for now. Should the commodities sell off a bit, a dollar rally would be likely.
The Fred Report - Weekly March 7, 2011
The Stock market has become very interesting, and complicated to analyze, as well as extremely frustrating. XLY still looks fabulous, as does XLP. We remain long-term bond bears, but rates could drop now, at least a bit, before rising in the second half of 2011.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 2, 2011
We caution subscribers that a real decline is not confirmed until we exceed the lows of 2/24/11 at 129.70 on the SPY. Given the position of the sentiment indicators, it suggests that if this type of action occurs the end of the down-move will be sharp and nasty, with capitulation.
The Fred Report - Weekly February 28, 2011
Our best guess is the market continues to correct this week, but that this is a correction in an ongoing bull move. We remain longer-term bond bears, but do expect a decent rally now, which should end by June at the latest. If EEM does not bounce from this 44 – 43 area we could see some downside acceleration.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 24, 2011
This remains a very strong uptrend, and while short-term indicators have corrected, intermediate-term ones have not yet pulled back. On an intermediate basis, there is nothing to suggest the bull market from the lows in 2009 is ending. We realize this is a “news driven” market, in the absence of news, with these readings, I would expect declines in oil and rallies in stocks over the very short-term.
The Fred Report - Weekly February 22, 2011
This week could be more volatile than we have experienced over the last couple of months. Should we have an up week this will put the monthly, weekly and daily indicators in position where a sharp correction could occur. LQD is our preferred way of adding to bond exposure in the US. We maintain our 17-month forecast of 152 on GLD.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 16, 2011
We note that GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) has had a strong couple of days, and reiterate that we would be accumulating the metal under the 130 area. Note that XLE and OIH have not started to correct, but when they do it could be a sharp drop. We continue to see out performance on the part of Chinese small caps, which we take as a plus for the Chinese markets as a whole.
The Fred Report - Weekly February 14, 2011
We have seen some improvements in both transportation stocks and also accumulation models, such that after some short-term choppiness the market could be up into the end of February. XLY (SPDR Select Sector Consumer Discretionary ETF) has started another up-move after some consolidation, which bodes well for the economy at least in the first part of the year. We do expect a strong summer rally in oil.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 9, 2011
The market is continuing the rally this week, albeit in a sort of insipid fashion. We will suggest the DIA (Diamonds Trust Series) rather than the SPY for those who want to add money to the market at this time. The DIA should outperform for a while.
The Fred Report - Weekly February 7, 2011
We caution advisors that we may be entering a period of small cap underperformance. The DBC has moved very close to the next resistance area, and may consolidate gains for the next couple of months.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 2, 2011
The rally continues to look a bit tired. Many indexes continue to lag the SPY. The EEM has been underperforming the US market since last November. This is not yet widely acknowledged and could be a major theme for 2011. Materials is an overweight for us and we would look at the strong stocks in the Sector Review – all look attractive. We also like the look of XLI (Industrials) – and would look for the strong stocks there as well.
The Fred Report - Weekly January 31, 2011
Despite Friday’s dramatic drop, the market essentially remains in “no man’s land”, or the range between 130 and 126 on the SPY. We continue to expect a move up in the TLT and LQD for the first half of the year, which will ultimately be retraced in the second half of the year.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 26, 2011
Should we pull back, creating a really great buying opportunity should present itself. FXY looks to rally a bit before resuming its decline. While further advances could occur in the XLF, the relative underperformance against other sectors is why we remain with an underweight in this sector.
The Fred Report - Weekly January 24, 2011
Some volatility has returned to the stock market, but stocks closed square in the middle of our 130 – 126 range on the SPY, remaining in “no man’s land”. Our accumulation model is still etching out a pattern of higher lows vs. lower lows in price, which suggests an imminent bond rally. Oil is approaching the end of its seasonally favorable period and there are some signs a decline could be starting.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 20, 2011
Until we close through EITHER 130 or 126 on the SPY, there is no real price directed technical signal. The IYT closed below the breakout close of January 3, 2011 and are now negative on the year.
The Fred Report - Weekly January 18, 2011
The stock market has rallied towards our 130 objective on SPY, and internals are weakening. We continue to have favorable indications on the TLT (Barclays 20 Year Treasury Bond iShare) and look for a short-term rally. We remain firmly in the inflation camp, and are sticking with our 17-month objective of 152 on GLD.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 12, 2011
The market continues to try and rally but make very little progress. Below SPY 125 would accentuate the risk, in our opinion. Bonds continue to give buy signals, and while this is a “bottom picking” area, and not a trend following sort of signal, accumulation models suggest nice upside.
The Fred Report - Weekly January 10, 2011
We continue to encourage traders to use tighter than average stops. The bond market continues to give small buy signals, suggesting that a rally is imminent. The dollar has made a significant move up and a move through 81.50 would target 83 to 84.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 5, 2011
Until the SPY moves through 130 and the IYT can improve – we will remain cautious. Sentiment continues to deteriorate. Bonds continue to look like a short-term bottom.
