The Fred Report - Weekly March 19, 2012
On SPY, we would be concerned short-term by two closes below 134, and believe this rally would be over below 129. Be alert for a sharp price advance in TLT from here that should ultimately fail. GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) has moved down into support and looks to rally from this area.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 14, 2012
When we look at the indicators we see market that is becoming overbought on our monthly indicators, but does not yet have a sell pattern to it. Stocks still are ok, but obviously we are closer to a short-term peak than we were in November of last year.
The Fred Report - Weekly March 12, 2012
We continue to see no sign of an intermediate top in the markets and believe investors will see our long-standing targets of SPX 1400 – 1430 before an intermediate correction could start. TLT has closed below 116 two successive times, and this suggests a move down towards 110 could occur. Japan’s economy is still primarily export driven and a cheaper Yen will contribute mightily to their success.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update March 7, 2012
We continue to look at 132 – 130 on SPY (SPDR S&P 500 Trust) as a reasonable objective for this down-move, while acknowledging that it might be over now. A close below 89 on IYT could imply lower prices on the SPY. We will wait for a new buy signal on GLD before adding positions.
The Fred Report - Weekly March 5, 2012
The market seems poised to undergo a minor correction – this is the best chance we have seen since late November of this occurring. Gold had a sharp drop last week, and we would use this to add to gold positions. For subscribers that want investments that benefit from inflation, Australia and Canada may very well be a good idea.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 29, 2012
Stocks continue to advance and the SPY has now had two successive closes above the 136.43 high close of 2011. This is a seasonally strong week for stocks and the rest of the week could see further upside acceleration. Two closes below 116 on TLT would suggest a solid drop in the T-bonds, and rise in rates.
The Fred Report - Weekly February 27, 2012
We are seeing more signs that the market is getting tired. We think this is going to be a good year for stock prices, and would look to position in strong groups and sectors, particularly in the small cap sectors, starting now, and adding on any sort of pullback. We remain overweight XLE and energy in general in our sector work, and the next few weeks should show whether this is a good idea or not.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 23, 2012
TLT has tried to break down below 116 and has not managed the two successive closes below 116 we expect to see before this market finally breaks. The Yen (FXY) is rapidly approaching 120 and a break of that area suggests a test of 115 or lower. We also point out that DBO has broken above 30-area resistance and a Friday close above this number would complete a head and shoulders bottom on oil.
The Fred Report - Weekly February 21, 2012
This week should be positive, although we are starting to see some signs the rally has gotten long in the tooth. Oil looks like it is ready to start an advance, and the big oil stocks still look better than the service names. Japan has signaled a desire to intervene and bring down the value of the Yen, but is unlikely to do so as long as the Eurozone is unstable.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 15, 2012
Sideways consolidation is another way to correct overbought indicators, and this could happen again – just as we saw back in late January – the brief consolidation that started January 25th. We continue to look for stronger US mid and small-cap performance rather than Emerging Markets, but there could be a trade to the upside in the BRICS for the next month or so, as European issues fade.
The Fred Report - Weekly February 13, 2012
We still anticipate higher highs either immediately or after a very quick, sharp pullback. We remain bullish on commodities and would use weakness to add to positions slowly, for a summer rally. TLT should underperform and we would use strength to raise some cash and put it into other income areas. There is some technical evidence that sentiment is moving away from safety plus income, to income with some possibilities for growth.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 8, 2012
The stock market continues to advance towards the 137 area on SPY, the next resistance. The broader indexes such as NYA, IWM are lagging a bit, and so are the Transports – a concern.
The Fred Report - Weekly February 6, 2012
The IJR has closed at an all-time high. This is significant because it continues the uptrend that has been in effect since the March 2009 lows. We expect SPY to challenge, and likely exceed, the 137 high made in 2011. Keep a wary eye on Europe, and note that we will move away from a bullish stance on the European ETFs should EWI move below 10.80.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update February 1, 2012
The McClellan Oscillator has moved from +140 to +65, without significant deterioration. This is often a positive sign for the markets, and if we do not start to see deterioration soon, our anticipated correction may not occur. We would like to see two consecutive closes above 7900 on NYA (NYSE Composite Index).
The Fred Report - Weekly January 30, 2012
The US stock market appears to be more vulnerable to a short-term correction than at any time since Thanksgiving 2011, so traders should be cautious here. This is likely an appropriate time to add international bonds to portfolios that are willing to speculate a little in exchange for higher yields. Should GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) close above 160 on January 31st, our objective of 210 remains intact.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 25, 2012
While trading patterns remain favorable, we did mention that for those who want to be a little defensive – now is be the time. A sharp drop would likely be a buying opportunity. Bonds are weakening, and the TLT is flirting with the key 116 area.
The Fred Report - Weekly January 23, 2012
We expect that 7900 on $NYA will be fully tested, and ultimately exceeded, but note that this would be a logical place for a pullback to begin. U.S. treasuries continue to look overextended to us. What is interesting here is that accumulation models on both USO, UHN, XLE, and OIH all look much better than the price charts of these ETFs, and for this reason we have elected to remain overweight oil and oil stocks for the time being.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 19, 2012
We continue to like the market, but there are obviously problems. We also note that GLD is having positive indications with positive daily moving averages and the weekly stochastic has turned up. We think the market may be moving away from “safety and income” to “growth plus income”.
The Fred Report - Weekly January 17, 2012
While indicators suggest some more correction/sideways action is possible, we are surprised by the resiliency overall. Agricultural commodities will be entering a period of favorable seasonality over the next couple of weeks.
The Fred Report - Mid Week Update January 12, 2012
We remain bullish but acknowledge that there is an increasing chance that a correction off this rise could start late in the week or next week. We would like to see a bit more strength in the broad based NYA and IWM. The DIA has broken out, but this may be a classic case of the “Generals” leading the charge, an unstable situation for now, but one that can certainly be corrected. We have concern that the McClellan Oscillator is at +170 and we have not broken through most of the resistance.
