Weekly Report

It looks as if the short-term bottom we have been looking for has arrived. We will watch SPY at the 510 to 513 area.

Stocks have been in pullback mode, and we have challenged the areas on SPY and QQQ we have been looking for. These were the 500-area on SPY, and the 425 to 410 area on QQQ.  Note that Mid and Small Cap were up on Friday, and advisors that are more aggressive might want to look at this area instead of the large cap units.

SPY has come very close to the 500-area we have been looking for. QQQ has fallen off as well and is testing support in the 430-area.  We think the market could turn up for the remainder of the week but remains in a precarious situation due to the bond market – which could be choppy to down (rates up) into the end of the month.

Stocks have continued the pullback we have been looking for, closing below the 512-area on SPY that has supported this market. This targets the 500-area we discussed as our secondary support.  This pullback is probably not over, and after this week the decline might resume.

Everybody should reread the Weekly regarding a potential upsurge in inflation and watch oil with regard to this.  One of the sectors that is trading well, and related to commodities, is XLB.

The only concern we have is that the daily stochastics are only about halfway down the range, even on the weakest indexes. This suggests there could be some sideways action or even further decline to secondary support.  Interest rates do look ready to advance.

A break of 512 on SPY would target 500. QQQ has tested the 439 support we have been looking for and much below Tuesday’s low at 438.03 would target 432, then 400.  A TLT close below 91.42, would suggest a sharp rise in rates is likely ahead.

We continue to see that the stock market is broadening out, as RSP has made new highs, along with MidCap.  If TLT becomes overbought, without price exceeding the last high, and ideally testing the 100-area, the chance of a rate cut drop, in our view.

We would be careful of the next sell recycle in QQQ and IJR – these could affect the whole market. We are holding positions, but mindful of benchmarks.  We have mentioned using Canada as part of an international allocation, and that still seems to be a good idea. EWA is weak, reflecting the weaker Chinese market, and we would not use it.

Daily stochastics are still in sell mode and this remains a concern for us.  If we were to add to positions, it would be in these two indexes (QQQ and IJR).

The advance is not over even if there is more correction, as we expect. The McClellan is a shorter-term indicator, and it suggests some more downside here.

Readers know that we have been emphasizing Healthcare and Industrials as favorite sectors and both are breakouts. There are several sectors that are improving – look at XLF.  We want to start adding to Mid-Caps and have some ideas that look strong. We will look at XMMO and XMHQ.

We will be watching IWM, as this has been trying to give us our closes above 207 for the last several sessions.

We would like to see this continue to at least 480 to 500 on SPY, and to 430 to 425 on QQQ.  TLT is rallying as stocks pull back. Resistance here is from 97 to 100. It is very possible that when TLT hits 97, the correction in stocks will be over.

Stocks continue to trade up, a bit more than we have expected, but accumulation models are still in strong formations.  We have been early on Biotech, but it looks as if our patience will be rewarded.  Unless FXY can start closing above 67 soon this is set up to continue the downtrend.  Our current opinion is the dollar is a range, but with an upward bias.

Japan and India have been our favorite international markets for some time. These markets should continue to advance.

We ran Accumulation models on the stock indexes and SPY and QQQ models are still close to new highs. This means that there is no danger of a major correction in stock prices. As we have mentioned on various calls, the risk here is that rates go higher. This would imply a break of 90 on TLT.

Small Cap looks stronger than we expected, in terms of Accumulation. There could be some interesting action here over the next few months.  The chart patterns of QABA and PSCF suggests that NYCB is probably an isolated incident and not a symptom of a larger problem.

Be a little careful in here, we could still see a pullback.

We remain intermediate-term bullish and expect strength after a market pullback.  XLV is a high-level consolidation that has lasted for two years. This has big potential as we have said.